Climate change debate rages on

Is the planet warming or cooling? Scientists argue the causes of global climate change and whether the planet will warm as quickly as estimated. It was recently reported by the BBC that there has not been an increase in average temperature over the last 11 years as predicted. In fact the warmest year recorded globally was in 1998, so does this mean that global warming isn’t happening?

Climate prediction and weather modeling is complex, involving variables including solar charged particles from the sun, and the cycles of the oceans which act as huge heat sinks. The degree to which these two variables impact on long term climate change is being argued as differing schools of thought debate this issue.

According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated. The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too. But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down. These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years. So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.

Professor Easterbrook says: “The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling.” The fact that temperatures are not rising as previously predicted may encourage sceptics of global warming and climate change, but following this period in the PDO, it is believed that temperatures could increase at a faster rate. Read more..